FTC v. Microsoft: all the news from the big Xbox courtroom battle

Breaking down Dr. Lee’s fashions.

OK we’re actually entering into the weeds of the deal fashions right here from Dr. Lee. That is key, as a result of it’s quantitative evaluation of the influence of Microsoft’s deal on competitors.

Dr. Lee has two fashions: share and foreclosures. Each have separate inputs and completely different information units and are designed to foretell the influence of withholding Name of Responsibility from PlayStation.

Share mannequin

The share mannequin measures general North American gen 8 console gross sales (Xbox One / PS4) after which applies a probable final result if Name of Responsibility was faraway from PlayStation.

It predicts that within the console market there could be a share shift of 8.9 proportion factors, based mostly on previous gross sales information of Xbox One and PS4 consoles.

This share mannequin makes use of solely North American market information and no assumed conversion price. The share mannequin doesn’t predict content material library share shift, nor cloud gaming.

Foreclosures mannequin

The foreclosures mannequin measures international console gross sales that features gen 9 (Xbox Sequence S / X and PS5) to foretell the long run. Inputs within the foreclosures mannequin aren’t the identical as share mannequin, because it has a conversion price that assumes 20 % of Name of Responsibility gamers would convert to Xbox.

On this foreclosures mannequin it predicts a share shift of 5.5 proportion factors. The mannequin is designed to work out at what level the advantages would exceed the associated fee if Microsoft have been to withhold Name of Responsibility from PlayStation. The foreclosures mannequin doesn’t predict content material library share shift, nor cloud gaming.

What does all of it imply?!

That is all slightly laborious to observe exactly as some numbers are being redacted on this deposition as they’re delicate and Microsoft’s lawyer is drawing diagrams I can’t see. However Microsoft’s lawyer argues that if Dr. Lee is incorrect concerning the 20 % conversion price within the foreclosures mannequin, if it was 15 % then “it doesn’t give Xbox a internet constructive for an incentive or motive” to withhold Name of Responsibility.

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